Amafektri ahlushwa ugesi wegridi olinganiselwe angasiza ekukhuliseni ukukhula kwezindawoizinhlelo zelanga, kanye nezinyathelo zakamuva zokuphoqelela ukufakwa kabusha kwe-PV ezakhiweni ezikhona nazo zingaphakamisa imakethe, njengoba umhlaziyi uFrank Haugwitz echaza.

Kube nezinyathelo ezahlukahlukene ezithathwe yiziphathimandla zaseShayina ukuze kuncishiswe ukukhishwa kwegesi, umthelela owodwa osheshayo walezi zinqubomgomo ukuthi i-PV yelanga esatshalaliswayo ithole ukubaluleka okukhulu, ngoba nje ivumela amafektri ukuthi asebenzise, ​​​​esakhiweni, amandla awo akhiqizwe endaweni, okuvame ukuba athengeke kakhulu kunamandla anikezwa yigridi - ikakhulukazi ngezikhathi zokufunwa okuphezulu. Njengamanje, isikhathi sokubuyisela esimaphakathi sohlelo lophahla lwezentengiselwano nezimboni (C&I) eShayina cishe siyiminyaka emi-5-6. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthunyelwa kwamandla elanga ophahleni kuzosiza ekunciphiseni izinyawo zekhabhoni zabakhiqizi kanye nokuthembela kwabo emandleni amalahle.

Ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti, i-National Energy Administration (NEA) yaseShayina yagunyaza uhlelo olusha lokuhlola olwenzelwe ngqo ukukhuthaza ukuthunyelwa kwe-PV yelanga esatshalaliswayo. Ngakho-ke, ekupheleni kuka-2023, izakhiwo ezikhona kuzodingeka zifake i-uhlelo lwe-PV ophahleni.

Ngaphansi komyalo, kuzodingeka iphesenti elincane lezakhiwo ukuze kufakwei-PV yelanga, kanye nezidingo ezilandelayo: izakhiwo zikahulumeni (ezingaphansi kuka-50%); izakhiwo zomphakathi (40%); izakhiwo zezentengiselwano (30%); kanye nezakhiwo zasemakhaya (20%), kuzo zonke izifunda ezingu-676, kuzodingeka zibe nesakhiwouhlelo lophahla lwelangaUma sicabanga ukuthi ugesi ungaba ngu-200-250 MW ngesifunda ngasinye, isidingo esiphelele esivela kulolu hlelo kuphela singaba phakathi kuka-130 no-170 GW ekupheleni kuka-2023.

Umbono wesikhathi esiseduze

Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi izinqubomgomo zokulawula i-carbon ephindwe kabili kanye nokulawula okuphindwe kabili zithinta kanjani, emasontweni ayisishiyagalombili edlule amanani e-polysilicon abelokhu ekhuphuka - afinyelela ku-RMB270/kg ($41.95).

Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule, kusukela esimweni sokuntuleka kokunikezwa kwe-polysilicon, ukuntuleka kokunikezwa kwe-polysilicon kuholele ekutheni izinkampani ezikhona nezintsha zimemezele inhloso yazo yokwakha amandla amasha okukhiqiza i-polysilicon noma ukwengeza ezakhiweni ezikhona. Ngokusho kwezilinganiso zakamuva, uma nje wonke amaphrojekthi angu-18 e-poly ahleliwe njengamanje eqedwa, inani lamathani ayizigidi ezintathu okukhiqizwa kwe-polysilicon minyaka yonke lingangezwa ngo-2025-2026.

Kodwa-ke, esikhathini esiseduze, amanani e-polysilicon kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale ephezulu, uma kubhekwa ukunikezwa okwengeziwe okulinganiselwe okuzotholakala ku-inthanethi ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo, kanye nangenxa yokushintsha okukhulu kwesidingo kusukela ngo-2021 kuya onyakeni ozayo. Emasontweni ambalwa edlule, izifundazwe ezingenakubalwa zivumile amapayipi ephrojekthi yelanga anesilinganiso se-gigawatt esiphindwe kabili, iningi elikhulu lihlelelwe ukuxhunywa kugridi ngoDisemba wonyaka ozayo.

Kuleli sonto, ngesikhathi sengqungquthela esemthethweni yabezindaba, abamele i-NEA yaseShayina bamemezele ukuthi, phakathi kukaJanuwari noSepthemba, kufakwe amandla amasha okukhiqiza i-PV yelanga angu-22 GW, okumele ukwanda ngo-16%, unyaka nonyaka. Uma kucatshangelwa intuthuko yakamuva, i-Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory ilinganisela ukuthi ngo-2021 imakethe ingakhula phakathi kuka-4% no-13%, unyaka nonyaka - 50-55 GW - ngaleyo ndlela iwele uphawu lwe-300 GW.

UFrank Haugwitz ungumqondisi we-Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory.