Amafekthri ahlushwa ugesi wegridi elinganiselwe angasiza ekuqhubekiseleni phambili ukukhula esizeniamasistimu elanga, kanye nezinyathelo zakamuva zokugunyaza ukulungiswa kabusha kwe-PV ezakhiweni ezikhona nazo zingaphakamisa imakethe, njengoba umhlaziyi uFrank Haugwitz echaza.

Kube khona uhla lwezinyathelo ezithathwe iziphathimandla zaseShayina ukuze kufinyelelwe ekuncishisweni kokungcoliswa komoya, umthelela owodwa osheshayo walezo zinqubomgomo ukuthi i-solar PV esatshalaliswayo izuze ukubaluleka okubalulekile, ngenxa nje yokuthi yenza izimboni zisebenzise, ​​endaweni, amandla azo akhiqizwe endaweni, evame ukuthengeka kakhulu kunamandla ahlinzekwa ngegridi - ikakhulukazi phakathi namahora okufuneka kakhulu.Njengamanje, isikhathi sokukhokha esimaphakathi sohlelo lophahla lwezentengiselwano nezimboni (i-C&I) e-China cishe iminyaka emi-5-6.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthunyelwa kwe-solar ephahleni kuzosiza ukunciphisa izinyathelo zekhabhoni zabakhiqizi kanye nokuthembela kwabo emandleni amalahle.

Ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti I-National Energy Administration (NEA) yaseChina yagunyaza uhlelo olusha lokuhlola oluklanyelwe ngokukhethekile ukukhuthaza ukuthunyelwa kwe-solar PV esabalalisiwe.Ngakho-ke, ekupheleni kuka-2023, izakhiwo ezikhona kuzodingeka zifake auhlelo lwe-PV ophahleni.

Ngaphansi kwegunya, inani elincane lephesenti lezakhiwo kuzodingeka lifakwei-solar PV, nezidingo ezilandelayo: izakhiwo zikahulumeni (ezingekho ngaphansi kuka-50%);izinhlaka zomphakathi (40%);izakhiwo zezentengiselwano (30%);kanye nezakhiwo zasemakhaya (20%), kuzo zonke izifunda ezingama-676, kuyodingeka ukuthi zibe ne-uhlelo ophahleni lwelanga.Uma kubhekwa ama-200-250 MW esifundeni ngasinye, isidingo esiphelele esitholakala kulolu hlelo lulodwa singaba ngohlelo oluphakathi kuka-130 no-170 GW ekupheleni kuka-2023.

Umbono wesikhathi esiseduze

Kungakhathalekile umthelela we-double carbon kanye nezinqubomgomo zokulawula okukabili, emasontweni ayisishiyagalombili edlule izintengo ze-polysilicon bezilokhu zenyuka - ukuze zifinyelele ku-RMB270/kg ($41.95).

Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule, ukuguquka kusuka esimweni esiqinile kuya esimweni esifushane manje sokuhlinzeka, ukunikezwa kwe-polysilicon kuholele ekutheni izinkampani ezikhona nezintsha zimemezele inhloso yazo yokwakha amandla amasha okukhiqiza i-polysilicon noma ukwengeza ezikhungweni ezikhona.Ngokwezilinganiso zakamuva, inqobo nje uma wonke amaphrojekthi amaningi ayi-18 ahleliwe njengamanje enziwa, ingqikithi yamathani ayizigidi ezi-3 okukhiqizwa kwe-polysilicon yonyaka ingangezwa ngo-2025-2026.

Kodwa-ke, esikhathini esiseduze, amanani entengo ye-polysilicon kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale phezulu, uma kubhekwa ukunikezwa okulinganiselwe okungeziwe okuza ku-inthanethi ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo, nangenxa yokuguquguquka okukhulu kwesidingo kusuka ku-2021 kuya onyakeni ozayo.Emasontweni ambalwa adlule, izifundazwe ezingenakubalwa zigunyaze amapayipi ephrojekthi elanga anamadijithi amabili egigawatt esikalini, iningi elihlelelwe ukuthi lixhunywe kugridi ngoDisemba wonyaka ozayo.

Kuleli sonto, phakathi nesithangami sabezindaba esisemthethweni, abameleli be-NEA yaseChina bamemezele ukuthi, phakathi kukaJanuwari noSepthemba, u-22 GW womthamo wokukhiqiza we-solar PV ufakiwe, omelela ukwanda kwe-16%, unyaka nonyaka.Uma kucatshangelwa intuthuko yakamuva, i-Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory ilinganisela ukuthi ngo-2021 imakethe ingakhula phakathi kuka-4% no-13%, unyaka nonyaka - 50-55 GW - ngaleyo ndlela yeqe uphawu lwe-300 GW.

UFrank Haugwitz ungumqondisi we-Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory.